The Knudson File: NCRIEF Total Property Returns

For institutional quality properties (i.e. pension funds) returns for all

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property types was relatively flat in the 1st quarter. The quarterly TOTAL return for the 1st quarter was 2.57%.

The NCREIF is an unleveraged and the income return was 1.39% vs last quarter’s 1.41% (~ 5.60% annualized) and the appreciation return was 1.18% vs last quarter’s 1.13%.

For the past 4 quarters through the end of March 2013, the total annual return is 10.52%. Although the total returns have slowed, it is historically a high rate of return.

Top 5 facts:

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  1. Total annual NCRIEF returns for the period ending quarter 1, 2013 were 10.52%.
  2. The annual return has been decreasing over the past 8 quarters as the income return decreases which then causes appreciation return to slow down.
  3. The quarterly income return has steadily decreased over the past 11 quarters as it went from 1.63% to 1.39%.
  4. Based on historistal relationships where the appreciation return is ~80% of the income return, then the annual total return will reach 10.00% when 4 quarters of 1.34% income returns are attained.
  5. If quarterly income returns go below 1.34%, then it is much more likely that total annual returns will fall below 10.00%. Compared to 10 year Treasury rate of
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NCRIEF Total Property Returns