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The Knudson File: The Battle of The Bulge Begins-US Treasury Rates; Period Ending 3.31.22

10-year US Treasury rates declined 2 bps this past week while Mortgage rates increased 25 bps.  Thus, the spread increased by 27 bps to 87 bps ABOVE the long-term spread of 168 bps between the two.

Lending Rates and Borrowing Costs

For the 7-day period ending March 31st, 2022, 10 Year Treasury rates decreased 2 bps. In the prior week mortgage rates increased 25 bps. This caused the net spread to increase 27 bps to 87 bps ABOVE the normal spread of 168 bps. Bond investors are trying to get ahead of the Fed’s future moves. Rates ROCKET up and feather down.

10-Year US Treasury; Daily vs Cumulative Change

Daily changes in the U.S 10-Year Treasury rates are the blue bars while the red line is the cumulative change in rates since March 11th, 2022. Cumulative changes over the past 14 trading period resulted in a 32 bps increase. For the blue bars it is unusual to have changes of greater than 0.10 in a single day and 0.20 is VERY usual.

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