For the week ending 3.2.23 Mortgage rates INCREASED 15bp to 6.88%.
For a $100,000 loan the monthly payment INCREASED $10 to $657/mo or $.33/day.
While mortgage rates INCREASED 15bp, 10 Year Treasury rates INCREASED 20bp. The net difference resulted in a decrease of 5bp in the spread to 280bp. With the historical spread being 168 there now exists a “safety cushion” of 112bp above the historical spread.
The historic spread between the 10 Year Treasury and mortgage rates is 168pb (see green line, right axis) and currently there is an 112bp above historical norm. For this spread to return to the historical norm, either mortgage rates will decrease further or 10 Year Treasury rates will increase.
US 10 Year Treasury Rates INCRESED 20bp for the ONE Week Ending 3.2.23
For the past week, 10 Year Treasury rates were up 20bp. For two weeks they were up 27bp. There did not appear to be any individual material changes to key economic metrics to cause the 9bp and 13bp increases.
Red line is most current rates while the green line is one week ago.
Longer term rates were UP ~20bp for the week.
Yield curve increased but continues to be inverted.
March 2 thru March 9, 2023—-Upcoming Week’s Data that Could Impact Treasury and Mortgage Rates
•Monthly data updates in blue—NONE in this upcoming week
• Weekly data on Unemployment Claims and Mortgage rates—Thursdays
Bill Knudson, Research Analyst LANDCO ARESC