LANtelligence

Industrial Property Is at Near Record Levels for Appreciated Return  

Q2 2022 returns are HALF of the prior quarter. The 4-quarter return remains at near record levels due to the elevated prior quarterly returns. Rising 10 Year US Treasury Rates are …

Inflation DOWN From 9.1% to 8.5% as Energy Prices Decline

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July was released today and the year-over-year total decreased from 9.1% to 8.5% as gasoline prices decreased in July.  Core was unchanged at 5.9%. …

What Could the Inverted Yield Curve Indicate?

Daily changes in the US 10 Year Treasury rates are the blue bars while the red line is the 14-day cumulative change in rates: a 23 basis point decrease. For …

Fed’s Must Balance Inflation vs Unemployment

The Federal Reserve’s next meeting is THIS Wednesday, July 27th.   The debate amongst economists now is how much will the Feds raise rates: 75bp vs 100bp. With the unemployment rate remaining …

Is Housing Still In Demand?

On July 26th the DEMAND SIDE data is scheduled to be released on Unit sales, Price, and Months of Inventory. While new home sales are up to 850,000, the volume being built is nowhere …

Housing – It’s Not All Bad News

Daily changes in the 10 years have been swinging up and down in groups of days. The market is trying to find direction. With robust new jobs and CPI up this past …

The Knudson File: Will Treasury Rate Increases Continue to Put Pressure on Mortgage Rates?

10 Year US Treasury rates increased 17 basis points for the week ending June 2nd, 2022.  This will put upward pressure on this coming week’s mortgage rates.  The short-term yield curve remains …

The Knudson File: US 10 Year Treasury Rates Decreased 9 BPS

Inflation improved in April, and as such the Yield Curve dropped particularly for longer-term rates this past week

The Knudson File: NCREIF Returns March 31, 2022

Total 4 quarter return for March 31st, 2022 attained a RECORD HIGH of 21.9% but look out for rising 10 Year US Treasury Rates. NCREIF Total Property Returns The main driver was industrial …

The Knudson File: Mortgage Rates at 5.50%

Mortgage rates have increased 20 bps while 10 Year US Treasuries have also increased by 20 bps, thus the spread remained at 245 bps. As predicted, at the May 4th …

The Knudson File: 10 Year Treasury Rates DOWN – Yield Curve FLAT For 5+ Years with INVERSION

The Yield Curve has had slight changes this past week (the red line is current, and the green is last week). The Yield Curve is virtually flat for 5+ years and the inversion is BACK.

The Knudson File: Mortgage Rates decreased 1 BPS to 5.30%

MORTGAGE RATES ARE NOW WELL ABOVE 5.00% and decreased 1 bps to 5.30%. For a $100,000 loan, the monthly payment decreased by $1 to $555 which is equal to $0.02 a day.

The Knudson File: Can The Fed Move Fed Funds WITHOUT Causing An Increase in Mortgage Rates?

With the STEEP short-term portion of the Yield Curve, the Fed can increase Fed Funds by nearly 200 bps and yet have no changes in longer-term Treasuries (ie 5+ years).  The result can still have a “normal” shaped Yield Curve. In fact, a Yield Curve shape is very similar to the pre-COVID-19 Yield Curve.

The Knudson File: 1 & 5 Year Treasuries up 17 BPS

10 Year US Treasury rates increased 7 bps for the week ending April 14th, 2022. 1 & 5 Year Treasuries were up a by a LARGE margin (17 bps).  This …

The Knudson File: Do Interest Rates Really Matter? 

One month ago, mortgage rates were ~4.00% and income needed to qualify for a $100,000 loan was $20,500.  Now, with rates at 5.31% $23,800 is needed.  This is an increase …

The Knudson File: Mortgage Rates up an Additional 28 bps to 5.20%

MORTGAGE RATES ARE NOW OVER 5.00% and increased 28 basis points to 5.20%. 28 bps was nearly a 3-sigma event that being 30 bps (in 51 years a 1% event). …

The Knudson File: CPI Spike in Energy Costs Related in Large Part to Russia/Ukraine

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2022 data was released on April 12th, 2022 and year-over-year levels came in at high’s last seen in 1981. The main driver of …

The Knudson File: CPI Inflation Data for March 2022 Out Tomorrow – How Will Markets React?

Energy costs and Used car price spike are causing choppiness in the month to month data. Below is energy costs. The GREAT news is the spike outlier of 5.0 for March 2021 will drop off.

The Knudson File: NEW HOME SALES and PRICES

When COVID-19 first hit the US in March 2020 sales of NEW homes immediately stalled but quickly resumed as interest rates declined.  With record-low mortgage rates, sales of NEW homes surged in late 2020 and into 2021.  As mortgage rates increased sales slowed but appear to be at levels slightly below levels that prevailed prior to March 2020.  The increased sales with multi-generational lows may have brought demand forward, thus giving the impression that NEW home sales have stalled.

The Knudson File: Mortgage Rates up an Additional 5 bps to 4.92%

After a VERY UNUSUAL bout of 3 weeks of consecutive rate increases of 25+bps, mortgage rates increased 5 bps this past week ending 4.7.22 and now stand at 4.92%.  (a review of …

The Knudson File: Fed Raises Rates to Fight Inflation

As the Feds raise rates to fight inflation, will it cause the price of Gas or Used Car Prices to decrease?  Both are supply-related issues.  What is noticed is the …

The Knudson File: “Battle of the Bulge”

10 year US Treasuries were up 14 bps this past week vs 26 bps for Mortgages.  Thus the spread increased by 12 bps to 60 bps ABOVE the long term …

The Knudson File: It’s Rocket Time In The Market so Buckle Up.

Rates rocket up and feather down.  Right now it is and will continue into the foreseeable future—it is rocket time, buckle up.  We will be hitting 5.00%+ well before year end.  (i.e. …

The Knudson File: Mortgage Rates increased 31 bps

Mortgage rates increased 31 bps this past week to 4.36%. The Fed increased rates 25 bps on March 15th, 2022, with many more increases to follow and a reduction in …

The Knudson File: Spread 48 BPS Above Historical Average

For the 7-day period ending March 17th, 2022, the 10-Year Treasury rates increased 22 bps while mortgage rates increased 31 bps. This caused the net spread between the two to …

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