LANtelligence

The Knudson File: Mortgage Rates at 5.50%

The Knudson File: Mortgage Rates at 5.50%

Mortgage rates have increased 20 bps while 10 Year US Treasuries have also increased by 20 bps, thus the spread remained at 245 bps. As predicted, at the May 4th …

The Knudson File: 10 Year Treasury Rates DOWN – Yield Curve FLAT For 5+ Years with INVERSION

The Yield Curve has had slight changes this past week (the red line is current, and the green is last week). The Yield Curve is virtually flat for 5+ years and the inversion is BACK.

The Knudson File: Mortgage Rates decreased 1 BPS to 5.30%

MORTGAGE RATES ARE NOW WELL ABOVE 5.00% and decreased 1 bps to 5.30%. For a $100,000 loan, the monthly payment decreased by $1 to $555 which is equal to $0.02 a day.

The Knudson File: Can The Fed Move Fed Funds WITHOUT Causing An Increase in Mortgage Rates?

The Knudson File:  Can The Fed Move Fed Funds WITHOUT Causing An Increase in Mortgage Rates?

With the STEEP short-term portion of the Yield Curve, the Fed can increase Fed Funds by nearly 200 bps and yet have no changes in longer-term Treasuries (ie 5+ years).  The result can still have a “normal” shaped Yield Curve. In fact, a Yield Curve shape is very similar to the pre-COVID-19 Yield Curve.

The Knudson File: 1 & 5 Year Treasuries up 17 BPS

The Knudson File: 1 & 5 Year Treasuries up 17 BPS

10 Year US Treasury rates increased 7 bps for the week ending April 14th, 2022. 1 & 5 Year Treasuries were up a by a LARGE margin (17 bps).  This …

The Knudson File: Do Interest Rates Really Matter? 

The Knudson File: Do Interest Rates Really Matter? 

One month ago, mortgage rates were ~4.00% and income needed to qualify for a $100,000 loan was $20,500.  Now, with rates at 5.31% $23,800 is needed.  This is an increase …

The Knudson File: Mortgage Rates up an Additional 28 bps to 5.20%

MORTGAGE RATES ARE NOW OVER 5.00% and increased 28 basis points to 5.20%. 28 bps was nearly a 3-sigma event that being 30 bps (in 51 years a 1% event). …

The Knudson File: CPI Spike in Energy Costs Related in Large Part to Russia/Ukraine

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2022 data was released on April 12th, 2022 and year-over-year levels came in at high’s last seen in 1981. The main driver of …

The Knudson File: CPI Inflation Data for March 2022 Out Tomorrow – How Will Markets React?

Energy costs and Used car price spike are causing choppiness in the month to month data. Below is energy costs. The GREAT news is the spike outlier of 5.0 for March 2021 will drop off.

The Knudson File: NEW HOME SALES and PRICES

When COVID-19 first hit the US in March 2020 sales of NEW homes immediately stalled but quickly resumed as interest rates declined.  With record-low mortgage rates, sales of NEW homes surged in late 2020 and into 2021.  As mortgage rates increased sales slowed but appear to be at levels slightly below levels that prevailed prior to March 2020.  The increased sales with multi-generational lows may have brought demand forward, thus giving the impression that NEW home sales have stalled.

The Knudson File: Mortgage Rates up an Additional 5 bps to 4.92%

After a VERY UNUSUAL bout of 3 weeks of consecutive rate increases of 25+bps, mortgage rates increased 5 bps this past week ending 4.7.22 and now stand at 4.92%.  (a review of …

The Knudson File: Fed Raises Rates to Fight Inflation

As the Feds raise rates to fight inflation, will it cause the price of Gas or Used Car Prices to decrease?  Both are supply-related issues.  What is noticed is the …

The Knudson File: “Battle of the Bulge”

10 year US Treasuries were up 14 bps this past week vs 26 bps for Mortgages.  Thus the spread increased by 12 bps to 60 bps ABOVE the long term …

The Knudson File: It’s Rocket Time In The Market so Buckle Up.

Rates rocket up and feather down.  Right now it is and will continue into the foreseeable future—it is rocket time, buckle up.  We will be hitting 5.00%+ well before year end.  (i.e. …

The Knudson File: Mortgage Rates increased 31 bps

Mortgage rates increased 31 bps this past week to 4.36%. The Fed increased rates 25 bps on March 15th, 2022, with many more increases to follow and a reduction in …

The Knudson File: Spread 48 BPS Above Historical Average

For the 7-day period ending March 17th, 2022, the 10-Year Treasury rates increased 22 bps while mortgage rates increased 31 bps. This caused the net spread between the two to …

The Knudson File: Where Are Mortgage Rates Headed?

Where Are Mortgage Rates Headed? My guess is 5.00% to 5.50% by Dec 31, 2022. This is based on historical spreads and the fact that the Fed has STRONGLY singled …

NCREIF Returns 4th Quarter 2021

ALL PROPERTY TYPES COMBINED: Income returns are tapering off as appreciation increases are recorded. The appreciation return spikes continue to be driven by record increases in industrial properties. ALL PROPERTIES …

The Knudson File: Treasury Rates increased 12 bps for Week Ending 3/10/2022

For the 7 day period ending March 10th, 2022, 10-Year Treasury rates increased 12 bps while mortgage rates increased 9 bps. This caused the net spread between the two to …

The Knudson File: Treasury Rates decreased as Russia attacked Ukraine

Treasury rates decreased 10 Basis Points as Russia attacked Ukraine. Mid-week Treasuries were off 14 bps while mortgage rates decreased 13 bps for the 7-day period ending 3.3.22. This caused …

The Knudson File: Mortgage Rates Decreased 13 Basis Points for Week Ending March 4th, 2022

Mortgage rates decreased 13 basis points this past week from 4.09% to 3.96%. While 4.00% is not a major price point, it will start catching the public’s attention. For a …

The Knudson File: 7 Day Treasury Rates For Period Ending 2.24.22

Treasury rates increased a modest 4 basis points while Mortgage rates decreased 3 basis points for the 7 day period ending February 24th, 2022. This caused the net spread between …

The Knudson File: Mortgage Rates for the Period Ending February 24th, 2022

Mortgage rates decreased a minor amount: 3 basis points this past week from 4.12% to 4.09%. While 4.00% is not a major price point, it will start catching the public’s …

The Knudson File: Weekly Mortgage and Treasury Rates Product

Mortgage rates increased 23 Basis Points this past week from 3.89% to 4.12%. While 4.00% is not a major price point, it will start catching the public’s attention. For a …

Video 14: Interest Rates with Michael Purves, Tallbacken Capital Advisors

Video 14: Interest Rates with Michael Purves, Tallbacken Capital Advisors
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