The Knudson File: US Treasury Rates and Interest Rates on the Rise

10-year Treasuries started to increase in late 2020 and have continued to increase since then as the economy recovers from the COVID shock waves.  Most recently, the 1-year rates have started to increase.

30-year home mortgage rates increases have outpaced 10-year Treasury rate increases.  The spread is now 25bp ABOVE the historical spread.  To get back to the historical spread either mortgage rates would decrease or Treasury rates increase. The latter is more likely given recent Fed statements.

Although the spread between mortgage and 10-year Treasuries is 25bp above average, there have been numerous instances where the spread has been larger.  Rates tend to rocket up and feather down.