The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October was released 11.10.22 and the year-over-year total decreased from 8.2% to 7.7%—it was VERY good and welcomed news on the inflation front.
The annual CPI number reported each month is a combined string of 12 months of data, think of it as being 12 dominoes, a new one comes on, the oldest one drops off. THESE are the 2 dominoes to look to see if things got better or worse.
On 12.13.22 the tall blue bars of 0.8% Oct ’21 will drop off as Nov ’22 data is reported. This good news will lower the 12 month CPI.
US Dept of Energy: US Average Gas Prices (nominal)
Below are gas prices, recently they have materially declined and continued to do so into November. This should have a beneficial impact in future CPI data releases in that the Y will be included as part of the 12 month running totals.
Oct 2021 data (red) was replaced by Oct 2022 (green). When red is larger than green, then inflation for that item will improve. When green is larger, then inflation is WORSE.
Bill Knudson, Research Analyst Landco ARESC